This die defines your luck in life, and is rolled by your god of choice at every important event: roll a (0) you fail miserably, (6) you succeed briliantly, (4) you pass, barely.

Would you rather have:
A: a 000666 die?
B: a 111555 die?
C: a 222444 die?
D: a 333333 die?

  • sylver_dragon@lemmy.world
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    12 days ago

    Option C “222444”.
    I coded successes as positive values and failures as negative values. I arbitrarily used a doubling for each greater success/failure level and came up with the following value coding:

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    -8 -4 -2 -1 +1 +2 + 4

    This results in the following expected values for the offered dice:

    A: -2
    B: -1
    C: -1/2
    D: -1

    All dice are bad, option C is the least bad. And this kinda makes sense. For option A, you may have a fantastic success, but you are also just as likely to complete crash out. And a “crash out” should happen after very few rolls. Option B is a slightly less extreme version of this, but any gains from the 5 results should be more than wiped out by the 1 results. And those should be happening with similar frequency. Option C is again the same thing, but with a slower circling of the drain. 4 results let you recover some, but the 2 wipes out that 4’s benefits and more resulting in a slow decline. And option D is just straight out bad, every result is a failure.

    It seems that the only good choice is not to play. ;-)

    EDIT: I realized, I made a mistake in my original numbers, I forgot to divide by 6. And this is why coffee should come before math. The conclusions are still the same, but the numbers are different. I’ve corrected those.

  • WanderingShadow@lemmy.world
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    13 days ago

    A. the 000666 dice.

    Failure is capped at rock bottom, whereas the possibilities for success are infinite, so the brilliant success should outweight the miserable failure.

    I assume this is the dice for people like Trump. Fail miserably and get convicted in your court case, then get elected president of the united states anyway.