Do you think that there is a dire shortage of tools for murder, and only the modern defense industry is sustaining the strained supply?
Israel, Russia, and Ukraine sure seem to think so. None are producing enough munitions domestically to satisfy themselves.
Less weapons made still means less weapon used.
Even if they were to completely back out now, that doesn’t look great, but is still probably not enough data to show a trend.
Now that many are reliant on “just-in-time” strategies, supply lines are not nearly as resilient to large trade fluctuations as they used to be, but the spike does mostly match the dip, and could be simply explained as exporters just trying to beat the tariffs by sending product early.
Now if the weeks after are also low… That’s another story.