Summary
Reddit shares have dropped 50% from their February peak, when the stock had soared over 500% from its $34 IPO price last March.
Much of the early enthusiasm came from AI-related deals allowing Reddit’s content to be used for training models, but recent doubts about long-term growth in the AI sector have dimmed that optimism.
Analysts remain skeptical and some call the stock “super overvalued,” noting Reddit still is not making any money.
Market uncertainty and early investor sell-offs continue to weigh on Reddit and the broader tech sector.
It’s not just the AI bubble, it’s a distinct lack of faith in Huffman and as a CEO. He’s not forward-thinking enough, he hasn’t understood where the company’s value lies, and he’s ridiculously distracted by the latest shiny tech things (reddit NFT avatars, reddit crypto, reddit AI).
I fully expect Google to buy reddit at some point, exclusively harvesting all the info for their search engine, all the content for their AI models, and all the submission/view/voting data for their user profiles (what are you interested in, what do you think of these concepts, where are you connecting from, here are more ads we can send you, and these are arguments that might sway you in purchasing or other decisions).
If Google weren’t under antitrust pressure, I think that would have already happened.
In many ways, a Google owner would probably make Reddit better for a while. Google cares a lot more about the data people are generating than making the site itself profitable. They could afford to run it at a loss for years, whereas Reddit investors want to ensure they make money soon.
But, I’m glad it might not happen. Then again, who knows what will happen to Google and antitrust in the Trump admin, where bribery is now perfectly legal.