• NimdaQA@lemmy.world
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    4 days ago

    A war with Iran would be disasterous.

    The Iranians can temporarily distrupt traffic at the Strait of Hormuz which would cause oil prices to rise.

    Saudi Arabia historically, had half of their oil supply severed temporarily due to an Iranian drone strike.

    Iran has developed special assets capable of hitting Americans in a distance of 2,500 KM. Each and every American base in the region would be threatened with a strike.

    A ground campaign would place American troops into disadvantageous terrain and would lead to massive losses, likely requiring a draft.

    Iran’s coastline is made up of bays, inlets, coves, and islands, all of which can hide really nasty things.

    Unlike the Iraqis, the Iranians are not so mindbogglingly incompetent as to be unable to use their sights (unlike the Iraqis which some of whom didn’t even know how to use the sights on their tanks for example, even less on how to use a tank’s more advanced features like infrared and FCS). The Iranians actually train somewhat realistically at times.

    Unlike the Iraqis, the Iranians have a somewhat coherent defense plan:

    “As enemy supply lines stretched into Iran’s interior, they would be vulnerable to interdiction by special stay-behind cells, which the IRGC has formed to harass enemy rear operations. The Artesh, a mix of armored, infantry and mechanized units, would constitute Iran’s initial line of defense against invading forces. IRGC troops would support this effort, but they would also form the core of popular resistance, the bulk of which would be supplied by the Basij, the IRGC’s paramilitary volunteer force. The IRGC has developed a wartime mobilization plan for the Basij, called the Mo’in Plan, according to which Basij personnel would augment regular IRGC units in an invasion scenario. IRGC and Basij exercises have featured simulated ambushes on enemy armored columns and helicopters. Much of this training has been conducted in an urban environment, suggesting that Iran intends to lure enemy forces into cities where they would be deprived of mobility and close air support. Iran has emphasized passive defense measures—techniques used to enhance the battlefield survivability —including camouflage, concealment and deception.”

    Heck, the insurgency alone would “make the Afghan and Iraqi conflicts look like a walk in the park.”