• NimdaQA@lemmy.world
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    3 days ago

    A war with Iran would be disasterous.

    The Iranians can temporarily distrupt traffic at the Strait of Hormuz which would cause oil prices to rise.

    Saudi Arabia historically, had half of their oil supply severed temporarily due to an Iranian drone strike.

    Iran has developed special assets capable of hitting Americans in a distance of 2,500 KM. Each and every American base in the region would be threatened with a strike.

    A ground campaign would place American troops into disadvantageous terrain and would lead to massive losses, likely requiring a draft.

    Iran’s coastline is made up of bays, inlets, coves, and islands, all of which can hide really nasty things.

    Unlike the Iraqis, the Iranians are not so mindbogglingly incompetent as to be unable to use their sights (unlike the Iraqis which some of whom didn’t even know how to use the sights on their tanks for example, even less on how to use a tank’s more advanced features like infrared and FCS). The Iranians actually train somewhat realistically at times.

    Unlike the Iraqis, the Iranians have a somewhat coherent defense plan:

    “As enemy supply lines stretched into Iran’s interior, they would be vulnerable to interdiction by special stay-behind cells, which the IRGC has formed to harass enemy rear operations. The Artesh, a mix of armored, infantry and mechanized units, would constitute Iran’s initial line of defense against invading forces. IRGC troops would support this effort, but they would also form the core of popular resistance, the bulk of which would be supplied by the Basij, the IRGC’s paramilitary volunteer force. The IRGC has developed a wartime mobilization plan for the Basij, called the Mo’in Plan, according to which Basij personnel would augment regular IRGC units in an invasion scenario. IRGC and Basij exercises have featured simulated ambushes on enemy armored columns and helicopters. Much of this training has been conducted in an urban environment, suggesting that Iran intends to lure enemy forces into cities where they would be deprived of mobility and close air support. Iran has emphasized passive defense measures—techniques used to enhance the battlefield survivability —including camouflage, concealment and deception.”

    Heck, the insurgency alone would “make the Afghan and Iraqi conflicts look like a walk in the park.”

        • jonne@infosec.pub
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          3 days ago

          I don’t know, the Shah was pretty bad. But I guess he wasn’t policing fashion?

          • Cosmic Cleric@lemmy.world
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            2 days ago

            I don’t know, the Shah was pretty bad. But I guess he wasn’t policing fashion?

            I heard the story once from an Iranian, about the difference between the Shah and the Mullahs.

            If kids at school were talking about how their parents hated the political leader, and the leader was the Shah, then that evening some plain clothed people would show up to their front door to beat up the parents.

            But if the leader was the Mullahs, then the plain clothed people would show up at their front door to shoot/kill the parents.

            So Iranians see a difference between the two.

            This comment is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

    • futatorius@lemm.ee
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      3 days ago

      70% of Iranians would like to be rid of the mullahs. That doesn’t mean they want the US to inflict half a million civilian casualties, as they did when ridding Iraq of Saddam Hussein. And this time, Trump and Hegseth will be running the show, so it’s a certainty it’ll be worse.

      • Cosmic Cleric@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        That doesn’t mean they want the US to inflict half a million civilian casualties, as they did when ridding Iraq of Saddam Hussein. And this time, Trump and Hegseth will be running the show, so it’s a certainty it’ll be worse.

        Personally I would tend to agree with you, but that didn’t stop the Iranians from having protest events in Iran calling for Trump to win/invade.

        People don’t always act logically, or maybe they measure the ‘lesser of the two evils’ and take actions based on that. Iranians were hoping Trump would win the election just for that reason, to invade and kick out the Mullahs.

        This comment is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

    • TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee
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      3 days ago

      I’m sure they would, but WhiskeyLeaks and the Perjury Gang would level whole cities and villages without a thought. They dropped an entire complex because they saw the guy they were targeting go in to see his girlfriend and got wet when they heard of the destruction.

      One guy and they killed 50+ men, women, and children.

    • IndustryStandard@lemmy.worldOP
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      3 days ago

      They could finally live in peace and they could reintroduce the slave market in Iran like they did for Libya.

    • NimdaQA@lemmy.world
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      3 days ago

      Yeah, no. The Iranians had a front row seat on what happened when the Americans ‘freed’ the Iraqis.

      • Cosmic Cleric@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        Yeah, no. The Iranians had a front row seat on what happened when the Americans ‘freed’ the Iraqis.

        I spoke to a younger Iranian once who ran an electronic store in Tehran about the very same thing.

        I asked him if they wanted (at that time) G.W. Bush to come in and free them, Iraq style. He took a moment to think, then said, before the Iraqi invasion, yes definitely. After, the invasion, not so much. But also, that he definitely hated the Mullahs.

        If you ask older Iranians, they all overwhelmingly want that to happen. So might just be an age divide thing.

        This comment is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

        • NimdaQA@lemmy.world
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          3 days ago

          Exactly, they might not like the current regime but they also don’t want America to step into Iran.

          They don’t want to become an Iraq or an Afghanistan.

          Even the old folk would start to resent the Americans once they start seeing their homes blown to pieces.

          The mess an American invasion of Iran would make would just play into Iranian propaganda.